Too soon

(Part of an ongoing account started on March 13, 2020 of how the spread of COVID-19 in our country and our government’s response has affected our lives.)

Aside from developments in Manila, I try to keep abreast with news in Cebu, where I have family.

I notice that as of 4 p.m. of May 5, 2020, Cebu City ranks second among cities with the most number of COVID-infected in the country with 920 cases, second to Quezon City’s 1,435 according to data from the Department of Health. 

I call my sister’s attention to the figures and am surprised when she acknowledges the data but says that Cebu City is scheduled to relax its quarantine status from Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ) to General Community Quarantine (GCQ) on May 16.

“Tingali baya ug gadahum ka nga mag GCQ na mo (You might be under an illusion that you’re transitioning to GCQ) by May 16,” I respond.

The Inter-Agency Task Force (IATF) for the management of Emerging Infectious Diseases assesses the risk classification of cities, provinces and regions in the country (e.g. high, moderate and low).

There are no specifics on what conditions have to be present for a city or province to merit a high risk severity grading as opposed to a moderate risk or even low risk severity grading, but the IATF has announced that the parameters include trends on the COVID-19 epidemiological curve, health systems capacity of local government units, as well as economic, social and security considerations.

I think that it is safe to assume that aside from other factors, the observable trend in terms of the number of COVID-infected is a basis for determining a city or province's risk severity grading.

Cebu City is considered high-risk to date since it is under ECQ. From May 1 to 15, 2010, provinces and component cities and towns that are classified as high risk are under ECQ, while those classified as moderate and low risk are under GCQ, with a provision that the quarantine will be lifted for low risk areas should risk levels not deteriorate by May 15.

The increase in COVID-infected cases in the Queen City of the South can be attributed to the mass testing of suspected cases in barangays under lockdown.

Aside from that, the Cebu City Government has started rapid testing today, targeting 20,363 households from 80 barangays.

Such a move is deemed necessary to get needed data to determine whether or not to transition to GCQ.  This is a good thing. The City is being proactive about getting a picture of the COVID-19 situation that is as close to reality as possible.

This also means that it doesn't look like the number of COVID-infected will go down any time soon, at least, not in time for May 15.

Yes, my sister is just like me. She’s an optimist.

DoH update: As of 4 p.m. of May 6, 2020, the Philippines has reported 10,004 confirmed coronavirus cases, including 1,506 recoveries and 658 deaths.